In this guide
- Give each lead a value based on historic customer lifetime value and conversion rates by stage.
- Send that value as the conversion value, then update it as stages change.
- Test value-based bidding against count-based bidding.
Lead generation reports counts: 100 leads this week. A count treats a $5,000 customer and a time-waster the same. Value-based bidding lets the platform tell them apart, but only if you send it values. This page explains how to work out a lead's value from your own history and send it. It builds on lead acquisition, offline conversions and lead quality in GA4.
Step 1: know your numbers
| Number | Where from |
|---|---|
| Lead-to-qualified rate | CRM history |
| Qualified-to-customer rate | CRM history |
| Average first-order gross profit | Finance |
| Average lifetime gross profit per customer (CLTV) | Finance or cohort analysis |
| Time from lead to customer | CRM |
Orders from your store, back to the ad that earned them
Your store sends the order once. Open Tracked passes it on to each ad platform, cleaned and deduplicated.
Step 2: value each stage
Expected value of a stage is the probability of becoming a customer multiplied by the expected customer value. For example: if 20 percent of leads become customers and the average customer brings $1,000 of gross profit, a new lead is worth about $200. A qualified lead with a 50 percent chance is worth about $500. A won customer is worth the actual value.
| Stage | Chance of becoming a customer | Value to send |
|---|---|---|
| New lead | 20% | $200 |
| Qualified lead | 50% | $500 |
| Won | 100% | Actual deal value |
The figures are an illustration. Use your own history, and revisit them every quarter.
Step 3: send values
Send the lead event with the starting value
To Google Ads, Meta and others, with value and currency.
Send later stages as separate conversions
With their own values, using offline conversions. See Google Ads offline conversions and Meta offline conversions.
Use a stable ID
So stages link to the same lead.
Update as you learn
If your rates change, change the values.
Ask Ari instead of digging through reports
Ari reads your tracking and ad data and answers in plain words.
Step 4: use value-based bidding
- Google Ads: target ROAS or maximise conversion value.
- Meta: value optimisation with your value signal.
- Give it enough conversions to learn, and keep values stable during the test.
Test it
- Run the current count-based campaign as the control.
- Run a value-based campaign with a similar budget.
- Compare cost per qualified lead and cost per customer after four to six weeks.
Tracking quality
Values only help if events reach the platform. Server-side events with matching data and stored click IDs make sure the stages link back to the right click. Open Tracked's CRM pipeline sends stages to Meta and Google Ads as offline conversions, and its Data Store and Cookie Keeper help keep identifiers. All are available from the free plan, apart from the CRM, which is part of the account.
A realistic example
A financial advisory firm runs Google Ads for consultation requests and treats every request alike. Its CRM shows that 15 percent of requests become clients and that the average client brings $4,000 of gross profit over three years. The firm sends a value of $600 with each request, $1,500 with each qualified request, and the real value when a client signs. Google's bidding gradually favours searches and audiences that produce clients, and the firm's cost per qualified request falls while its volume of raw requests dips. Management first worries about the dip, then sees that cost per client is lower. Value-based bidding trades raw volume for quality, and the numbers need to be read that way.
3 things to remember
Scroll and the points stack up.
Give each lead a value based on historic customer lifetime value and conversion rates by stage.
Send that value as the conversion value, then update it as stages change.
Test value-based bidding against count-based bidding.
Frequently asked questions
How do I value a lead?
Multiply the chance it becomes a customer by the expected customer value, using your own history.
Which value should I send?
Gross profit, not revenue, where you can.
Can bidding use lead values?
Yes. Google and Meta offer value-based optimisation.
How often should I update values?
Quarterly, or when your conversion rates change.
How long should the test run?
Four to six weeks, with enough conversions.
Do I need spreadsheets to read my results?
No. Once tracking is live, the Open Tracked analytics shows spend, revenue, ROAS and profit, and you can ask Ari, the built-in AI assistant, questions about your own numbers in plain words. Ari's allowance depends on your analytics plan.
Is Open Tracked different from Open Track or Open Space Track?
No. Open Tracked is the official name of our server-side tracking platform, and the website is opentracked.io. Many people search for it as Open Track, OpenTrack or Open Space Track. All of them lead to the same product: server-side Google Tag Manager hosting, first-party analytics and a CRM pipeline.
Fix your tracking at the source
Open Tracked hosts your server-side Tag Manager, keeps first-party cookies alive and shows what each ad is really worth.
The Open Tracked team
We build Open Tracked: server-side tracking hosting, analytics and the tools around them, for stores that spend on ads. Questions about this guide, or an idea for the next one?
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